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Hyperscaler capex is now the macro story

Sep 24, 20263 min read

Microsoft, Google and Amazon guided to a combined ~$210B in 2025 infrastructure spend. The second-order read: power contracts and HBM memory supply, not chips, are the binding constraint.

All three companies raised their capital expenditure guidance in the same quarter, and all three pointed to the same bottleneck. Data-centre shells can be built in months; grid connections and long-term power purchase agreements take years.

Memory is the other constraint. High-bandwidth memory is sold out through next year at the two largest suppliers, and each new accelerator generation needs more of it per chip.

For markets, the spend is now large enough to show up in GDP components and utility demand forecasts — which is why it is being discussed alongside rates and inflation rather than in the tech pages.

Key points

  • Combined 2025 infrastructure guidance of ~$210B, up roughly a third year over year
  • Power availability and HBM supply are cited as the limiting factors
  • The same theme appeared across 6 of the 11 monitored sources