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Fed holds, and the dot plot turns

Sep 22, 20262 min read

Rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50%. Two members now see a cut by June — dovish without saying so.

The statement itself changed little, but the projections did. Two members moved their median path lower, putting a first cut on the table before mid-year.

The chair declined to commit to timing in the press conference, repeating that decisions remain data dependent. Futures markets moved to price a higher probability of a June cut within the hour.

Key points

Policy rate held at 4.25–4.50%
Two members now project a cut by June
Rate-cut chatter is the second most-mentioned topic across sources today